Ethan Haywood
Hello and welcome back to another episode of The Select Sires Podcast. I'm your host, Ethan Haywood, and today we're excited to talk about some big numbers that are going to be moving around and shaking up the genetics industry. Coming up, we have a big base change as well as some formula updates. And here to discuss what those numbers are going to look like for the April 2025 proofs is Chuck Sattler, vice president and manager of genetic programs for Select Sires Inc. Chuck, thank you so much for taking the time to be here with us today.
Chuck Sattler
Well thanks Ethan, I'm happy to participate, been enjoying the podcasts and looking forward to being involved in this one.
Ethan Haywood
And this one's a big one because it is a large change within what we're used to seeing on bull pages and heifer genomics and all these numbers that we've become accustomed to what's good and what's our goal for the last five years. And it's all going to shake up on us due to a little thing called a base change. So if you could start out by giving us a little background, Chuck, what is a base change and why do we do this once every five years as an industry?
Chuck Sattler
So with our genetic evaluations, we work very hard at expressing them so they have meaningful numbers and can give our customers and producers a good indication of what a bull will transmit or the cows they're breeding will transmit. Periodically that needs to be updated so it stays relevant to the current population of cows. If we didn't update the base periodically, the numbers and the traits we're making genetic progress in, the numbers would continue to increase and become very large and would not be a realistic indication of how much genetic change an individual animal provides.
Ethan Haywood
And so as we look at a lot of these PTA numbers, they're referencing that base population. And so we're moving from our old base population to our new, which is a difference of five years. So when we calculate something like the average number of milk for the base population, what animals are we going to be looking at to calculate that average for starting in 2025 April?
Chuck Sattler
So yes, as you say, we update the base every five years. It's a scheduled change that we do in the U.S. industry. Our current base used in the December evaluations were the group of cows born in that particular breed in 2015. Here in 2025, that'll get updated to the cows born in 2020. That group of cows, the average trait for that group is set to zero. So there'll be variation within that group, but the average of that group will be set to zero. And so for those traits where we've made genetic progress in the last year, the genetic base or the reference point will increase, which means the PTAs will become lower because they're compared to a higher standard than they used to be.
Ethan Haywood
And so a good example of the base changing a large amount is typically Milk, and that's going to be a big one this year. Essentially, the animals that are going to be in the new reference-based population have higher production than the last reference population, which is great because we've made a lot of genetic progress to get there. Looking at the example of Milk and Holsteins, how many pounds is that going to swing, and what does that look like on a bull page?
Chuck Sattler
For Milk, the base change will be about 750 pounds. The genetic average has increased 750 pounds, so our PTAs will be decreasing by 750 pounds with the April evaluations.
Ethan Haywood
And so when I open a bull page that first week of April after these evaluations and all of a sudden these Milk numbers seem super low, is everyone affected equally within the population or how does that work?
Chuck Sattler
Exactly. Yeah, everything, it's a standard adjustment for all animals. So all animals will be adjusted to the same degree. The base change does not change the ranking of animals. It's just simply rescaling the evaluations with a new center point. We simply need to readjust our standards, but we don't need to be too concerned about animals changing ranks. The genetics of the animals haven't changed. We're just using a different scale to express the evaluations.
Ethan Haywood
We're just using a different scale and we're sliding that bell curve to the side depending on which way genetic progress and gain was done. We are not changing the genetics of the animal. He's still the same bull or she's still the same heifer or cow as they were the day before base change, but it looks a lot different. And it looks different amongst all the different breeds. Does each breed calculate their own change for this or what are the differences you see breed to breed?
Chuck Sattler
Yeah, each breed will have its own genetic base, so we can compare them properly amongst animals of the same breed. The Holstein breed, being larger, has a little more capacity to make genetic improvements. So their changes are a little bigger than the other breeds. The Jersey breed, we're looking at about 400 pounds of Milk progress in the last five years or a decrease of 400 pounds in the PTAs will be the base change for them. And then the Brown Swiss are about 350 pounds of Milk change.
Ethan Haywood
And so looking at some of the big numbers that we expect to see a lot of fluctuation, starting with the Holsteins, we talked Milk is a big change. We've made a lot of progress there. How about on the fertility side? What do we anticipate seeing for a DPR or a CCR calculation change?
Chuck Sattler
One of those challenges in breeding, it’s hard to make progress in both production and fertility at the same time. So the fertility changes are a little bit closer to break even. We actually see a little decline, genetic decline in the DPR trait, Daughter Pregnancy Rate. So the base change will be slightly positive there. For Cow Conception Rate, CCR, we have made some progress in that trait. And so the base change for CCR will be a little bit negative. Maybe some other big numbers to think about and be aware of as we go through as we've made substantial progress in component production as well. So we'll see a pretty substantial decrease in PTAs for Fat and Protein. And for Combined Fat and Protein, we're expecting about a 75 pound adjustment here with the base change in April.
Ethan Haywood
Wow, that'll be a big difference, which will not rerank animals. However, it definitely changes your comfort level. When you're used to setting these arbitrary numbers, I want a bull over so-and-so CCR and over so-and-so Fat, over so-and-so Protein, it might be kind of hard to meet those constraints. And the term that we use within the industry is to focus on relative rank. So can you clarify for me, why does relative rank not change, even though we've got these big changes in PTAs?
Chuck Sattler
Right. Again, we're taking the standard adjustment approach for the base change, and we're applying that to all the animals. So animals at zero get impacted basically the same level as animals at +1,000. And so the base change does not affect rank. But for those traits where we have established individual minimums, we do need to look at adjusting those. I think that's one of the nice things about our periodic base change is it gives us an excuse to take stock of what's happened in the last five years, recognize that we've made some important genetic progress in key traits, and then kind of take a step back and review what we're doing and make some adjustments if needed to adjust our individual cutoffs. You maybe need to think about the index we're using for our breed program or for our breeding program and making some adjustments in the index at this time. It's just a convenient time to take a step back and evaluate things.
Ethan Haywood
And as we continue to evaluate these changes, the type traits or PTAs are also a part of this base change. In Holsteins, what are we going to see for some of those common traits like stature or udder traits?
Chuck Sattler
Sometimes we have a challenge standardizing our practices across the industry, but with the base change, we're pretty standardized across the U.S. industry, and the Holstein Association and Zoetis and other folks publishing evaluations all make the base change, all adjust their bases at the same time here in this five-year interval. So, yeah, we will be seeing some changes in the Type traits as well. We continue to make progress in overall conformation in the udder traits, and we can expect to see lower numbers in those traits as well. PTAT half a point adjustment for the base change here in 2025. Udder Composite looks to be about 0.8 adjustment and then when we look at some of the individual traits I think some of the changes there are notable as well in the Holstein breed the cows continue to get a little more, tend to be increasing in stature as well. So that we will see the base change will be negative for Stature, about -0.3. In general, the udder traits are improving. Individual linear traits for udders are improving from about 0.75 to 1 point. And so we'll see a pretty noticeable decline in those STA values with the April proofs. Again, on the udder side, one of some of the more challenging traits there would be Teat Length, as they continue to get a little bit shorter. So the values for Teat Length will increase by about 0.25 of a point here with the base change. If we're concerned about Teat Length, we're going to need to pay attention to that one and definitely adjust our standards. Rear Teat Placement is another challenging trait. The genetic trend continues for those rear teats to get a little closer. And so the base change for Rear Teat Placement is about 0.4 of a point. So some things to make note of as we look at some of the conformation traits.
Ethan Haywood
And so all of these individual PTAs feed together to make a variety of indexes that we utilize as producers or as a sales force or as a breeding selection force to make decisions with and do sorting with. How will some of these more popular composite indexes be affected by a base change?
Chuck Sattler
That’s a little hard to predict at this point. We definitely can expect the indexes to be lower, especially indexes like Net Merit Dollars and HHP$® (Herd Health Profit Dollars®). For the breed indexes like TPI® and JPI™, they do make an effort to keep those stable as we go through a base change, so they add a constant into their indexes and adjust that when we make base changes to keep those indexes steady so that you can continue to use the same cutoffs you’ve used previously. So for NM$ and HHP$, we'll need to pay some attention. And as we get closer to April and getting more details on those base changes, we'll be able to provide better advice about what adjustments need to happen in those major indexes.
Ethan Haywood
And just to highlight a couple of the individual changes that we'll see in the Jersey breed, we already talked that there'll be a substantial, not as big as Holsteins, but a substantial change in Milk, Fat, and Protein. What do you see on the fertility side for Jerseys as far as progress?
Chuck Sattler
Yes, on the Jersey side it's always a challenge just like Holsteins to make progress for fertility traits at the same time as we're making improvements for production. So the base change for Daughter Pregnancy Rate on Jerseys we'll see a slight increase of 0.4, on the Jersey side and no change on the Cow Conception Rate values for Jerseys.
Ethan Haywood
Overall, looking at the progress that we've made, it's incredible the production and especially the component progress that has been made in the Holstein breed and overall production made in Jersey and other high protein breeds. As we continue to look at the changes that we are anticipating to see in April, we just want to think through this process. If I'm a breeder and I open up to try and pick out new bulls in April, how do I try and gain context as far as what's good and what's not good when I'm looking at bull to bull?
Chuck Sattler
It’ll maybe take a little extra time here with the April proofs and doing some additional sorts to gain that perspective of where the top animals are at and what is a respectable value for the different traits? For the production traits, it'll be a little bit lower, so if we're looking at bulls that are +1,500 or +2,000 for Milk today, they'll look more like +750 to +1,250 going forward for Milk. And so these base change estimates can help us get some early indications of where the appropriate levels are and what kind of values we need to look for here when the April proofs come out.
Ethan Haywood
In addition to all of these base change numbers to try and readjust the way that you're looking at dairy proof data, there's also an update coming to the NM$. Would you mind sharing with us a little bit about what is being updated within this index and which traits are increasing in weighting and which traits are decreasing in their weighting?
Chuck Sattler
Like I said, the base change provides the opportunity to reevaluate things and make some other adjustments. So it's a convenient time for our industry organizations to make other adjustments like tweaking the NM$. The NM$ is an index that's purely economically based. And so periodically, and typically at the base changes, the folks at CDCB and USDA go through and update all the economic assumptions that they use in formulating the NM$. So we all know that milk prices are constantly changing, feed prices are changing, heifer prices, beef prices, so all those kinds of things. They take multi-year averages and they'll add the most recent years to their formulations and reformulate the economic values used to formulate the NM$. They've gone through that exercise and have provided us with some indications of how Net Merit will change. And it looks like the new formulation that'll be used in the April 2025 evaluations will increase the emphasis on fluid milk. Also have some increase in the value for Fat. And some of those other economic changes like feed prices are causing some increased emphasis on reducing body size, improving relative feed intake and the feed efficiency component of the Net Merit formula. And the calving ability traits will get some increased emphasis here with the new version of NM$. On the flip side, they're going to scale back, ratchet back some of the weighting on Protein in the formula, as well as overall Productive Life, udder conformation, and a little reduction in the value of cow fertility.
Ethan Haywood
As you said, it's a convenient time at base change to try and reevaluate. You know, we may have gotten comfortable saying that I'm happy with a bull that's over so much Milk and so much CCR and below so much Somatic Cell Score and keep moving. But as formulas change, as the base changes itself, as well as the regular update information from new daughters on bulls as they begin to prove out and affect all of the overall values within different traits for the population. It's a good time to evaluate what composite index are you utilizing, what individual PTAs are you prioritizing, what are your hard cutoffs for individual PTAs, as well as what is the overall direction and goal of your breeding program. So you may have to try and allocate a little bit of extra time, typically. I know we will, Chuck, as far as getting our heads right after this base change update and NM$ update as well. Do you have any advice for producers as they sit down and sort through what may be a much less comfortable set of numbers than they were back in December?
Chuck Sattler
Well, some very general advice, but using an index is the most effective way, most efficient way to make genetic progress in multiple traits at the same time, especially those traits that are unfavorably related, like production and fertility and production and health traits. Using an index is the best way to go. And I think the base change time kind of estimates some of the convenience values of an index as well, where you don't have to be too worried about adjusting a whole bunch of different standards. You can just use your index and sort the list and use the animals from the top. So it kind of simplifies the base change process as well. But we all have individual cutoffs in our head. And when we sit down with the list in April, it could be a little bit shocking if we're not anticipating the changes that are coming. So like you say, we need to maybe budget for a little extra time to sift through and get used to the numbers and readjust some of our perspectives then, take some extra time and get used to the new scale that we'll be seeing in the April evaluations. I guess it's also important to emphasize that the zero points we use as the benchmarks in these evaluations, they represent the population average. It doesn't necessarily mean optimum or the goal or target or it's just the average so for traits we want to increase like production I think it's easy to understand that maybe that obviously zero isn't ideal and we want higher numbers for the linear type traits it becomes a little bit more challenging because we have quite a few traits that we feel where the intermediate area is the optimum. And for those kinds of traits, we maybe need to think twice about is zero ideal? And if zero is where we want to be, we need to be okay using some bulls and cows with negative numbers. And maybe some traits +1.0 or +1.5 is ideal. And so we maybe need to think twice of how to account for those intermediate optimum traits when we have the new base change here in April.
Ethan Haywood
Well, we're excited for April and we're excited for this upcoming proof. It may be a little bit of extra mental gymnastics because a lot of these base changes are the largest we've had for particular traits historically. However, that's really cool that that indicates how much progress that breeders across the U.S. are making within this system, how aggressive that we've been and that new systems of precision breeding, trying to not only mate cows correctly, but make sure we're making replacements out of very specific animals while using the top end of the male population indicates that we're really making a lot of progress quite rapidly. So it's very exciting. It'll be a lot of fun. Thank you so much for your time here today, Chuck. We're very excited to see how Select Sires performs here in April.
Chuck Sattler
All right. You're welcome. It's my pleasure.