Historically, the A.I. industry has recognized multiple systems for measuring sire fertility. In addition to Agri-Tech Analytics (ATA) regional estimates of sire fertility Select Sires calculates independent estimates of sire fertility (RBE II) from data obtained from our Program for Genetic Advancement™ herds (PGA™). Select’s Composite Fertility Index™ (CFI™) combines these regional estimates into a single weighted mean deviation. More recently, the USDA Animal Improvement Laboratory (AIPL) has introduced another sire fertility evaluation methodology referred to as Sire Conception Rate (SCR). With different sources of sire fertility information, we should not be surprised to find that sometimes they do not agree. When that happens, which system should we be believe?

Which system should you trust?

Fact is, all systems do the best job they can with the data provided. The differences typically relate to having enough services to overcome the environmental noise that can negatively affect the accuracy of estimates. This principle was the foundation for Select Sires CFI estimates where combining estimates across systems was used to strengthen the power and accuracy of each sire’s estimate. More recently, SCR offers a similar advantage by combining data from multiple DHIA processing centers across the U.S. into a single sire fertility evaluation system. The fact that the new SCR system and Select’s CFI are high correlated tends to validate the accuracy of each system’s methodology.

The future

Now that SCR is available, some have questioned the future need for RBE II or CFI. Beginning in January 2009, CFI estimates no longer include ERCR estimates and are based only on RBE II and ATA data. Because SCR is a national system, it is not appropriate to include it in CFI estimates as that would be too much "double counting" of services. However, because SCR is a new methodology, cross-referencing estimates with ATA, RBE II and CFI will help us spot deviation that just “don’t look right” and thus will assist in identification of opportunities for improvement in both systems.

Additionally, Select’s in-house sire fertility estimate (RBE II) has a distinct advantage over all other evaluation systems. The RBE II system is a rolling summary of only the most recent year’s worth of insemination data, whereas each of the other systems contains three or more years of data. While more years equal more services and a tendency for greater accuracy, it is distinctly possible to have "too much data". In combining three and four years of data, many sires may have estimates based on 50,000 to more than 100,000 services. Extremely large datasets diminish the ability to detect changes in fertility over time. Restricting data to one year keeps estimates current. Furthermore, RBE II is calculated six times per year, which means new graduates will likely receive more timely estimates with RBE II than with ATA or SCR.

The bottom-line

At the end of the day the bottom-line is, nobody takes a closer look at sire fertility than Select Sires. For unbiased fertility estimates you can trust, look to the only A.I. source that considers all available sources of fertility estimates and then shares it with you – Select Sires.


Components of the Composite Fertility Index
Includes over 1.02 million services on 567 Select Sires

• AgriTech Analytics Data (ATA)
  

  Utilizes palpated pregnancy data; uses multiple services; is a continuous database with no time limit on use of historic data; representing large herds located in the West; 466,915 total services on 128 Select Sires bulls with 10 or more services in 10 or more herds.

• Relative Breeding Efficiency (RBE)
  

  Calculated by Select Sires from data processed by Dairy Records Management Systems (DRMS); multiple Service non-return rate (includes Program for Genetic Advancement™ (PGA™) herds); a one year rolling herd average (therefore the data is current); contains 541 Select Sires with 200 or more services for a total of 554,025 services; includes Eastern, Midwestern, Southeastern and Southwestern herds.

Go to Composite Fertility Index Listing

™Composite Fertility Index, CFI, Program for Genetic Advancement, and PGA are trademarks of Select Sires Inc.
01/09 USDA and ATA Data